FIRE number: drag the rate
Drag the handle to set the withdrawal rate. Spending is held still, so the headline FIRE number moves only because the multiple does. Four percent is 25 times spending. Cut the rate and the pile the same lifestyle wants gets larger, and the wait from today's saving gets longer.
FIRE number
$1,500,000
Years to the pile
22.4 years
Spending is a fixed $60,000. A lower rate wants a larger pile. The wait assumes $50,000 already saved plus $25,000 a year at 7 percent. Illustrative arithmetic, not a retirement plan or advice.
Annual spending
$60,000, held still so only the rate moves the multiple.
In short
- Drag the handle left for a lower withdrawal rate and a larger pile.
- Stop at 4 percent, the default teaching-sheet rate.
- Read years to the pile, which assumes a constant return and a constant annual saving.
- Focus the handle and use the arrow keys to step the rate.
Why 4 percent is 25 times spending
If you plan to withdraw 4 percent of a pile in the first year, the pile has to be times that spending. A 3 percent withdrawal wants about 33 times. The rate and the multiple are the same fact written two ways.
How FIRE numbers work is the identity, with the FIRE number calculator under the answer. The 4 percent figure is a research finding about a particular historical sample, not a law of arithmetic. Safe withdrawal rates treats that claim as history rather than as a formula.
The wait assumes a constant return
Once the target is known, years to FIRE is a savings-goal question at one constant rate. A real path is a sequence, and an average return is not a compound return. The sequence of returns explorer is that picture.
Spending is the lever that moves both sides: cut it and the pile shrinks while annual saving, if the cut comes from current consumption, rises. The savings rate explorer is often the clearer FIRE tool for that reason.
What the number is silent on
Taxes, healthcare, housing that is or is not paid off, and a state pension all change the spending the pile has to cover. Inflation is inside a real return and a real spending figure, or inside neither. Mixing a nominal return with today's spending held flat understates the pile. How real returns work is the conversion. Drawdown is what a bad sequence does to a pile that looked large enough on day one.
Common questions
Is 4 percent safe?
It is a finding about a particular historical sample of US stock and bond returns, not a law. This picture will apply whatever rate you type. It will not tell you that 4 percent is safe.
Why does a lower rate want a larger pile?
Because the pile is spending divided by the rate. Cut the rate and the same lifestyle needs more capital sitting underneath it.
Should I retire on this number?
No. It is spending over a rate on a teaching sheet. It is educational material, not advice.
Keep reading
This page is educational material, not financial advice. The figures come from the formula shown and assume the inputs you enter hold for the whole term. Your own rate, fees, taxes and timing will differ, so treat the output as arithmetic to check a decision against, not as a recommendation.